Flat on the Surface, Moving Underneath

The Saturday Review is my trading journal, published every Saturday morning. What I traded, what it cost me, and what I got wrong.

No. 3 · Week ending 02 October 2026

Before anything else

Saturday mornings allow me to spend quality time in the Word, so this is where the week's review begins, before a single chart is opened.

The title in my Bible for this passage is "Marks of a True Christian". This is a life that God wants us to live, a life that is pleasing to Him. I'm going to be honest here, while reading through this text I realized I fall short on ALL of these characteristics. But the beauty of it is I don't have to do them all perfectly, because the reality is, we cannot and will never be able to reach perfection in this life. That is what God's saving grace is for through the blood of his son Jesus Christ. However, it doesn't mean we should stop trying.

These words were given to us by Paul the Apostle through the Holy Spirit so that we can continue working towards righteousness and a servant life that is pleasing to God. My prayer today is for the Holy Spirit to keep working in me, help me meditate on these characteristics and make me more aware of them daily so that I can live them out daily and live a life that is pleasing to my God and Savior.

The scorecard

Realized this week, and where that leaves the year.

Another week where I did not really get any traction with any trades. Lots of papercuts again. I'm getting better at finding the opportunities, but still struggling with timing and execution. I am developing a better understanding of how to trade in this environment and do see the light at the end of the tunnel. Slowing it down, being more selective and waiting for pullbacks on A+ setups should be the focus for me so that I can stop this bleeding. The current positions I hold are strong and in good profit which is keeping me going.

Although I'm taking papercuts and realizing more losses which is reducing my realized return results, I do have a number of open positions that are sitting in good profit and that's what's keeping the equity curve up there.

[Note: the realized return above are closed trades. The equity curve includes open positions.]

Where the market stands

Overall, it's been a positive week in the markets, especially considering all the expected news and announcements going into this week. Softer than expected PCE data came out on Wednesday morning, followed by good earnings results from Micron showing the AI trade is still alive, and Friday's Job's Numbers being worse than expected is forcing the Fed to re-consider their stance on interest rates.

Looking at the indexes below, the SPY closed the week above the 21EMA and the RSP pushed higher after forming a low on Thursday. What the charts are showing you is the mega caps keeping the market alive while the majority of stocks going lower over the past 6 weeks. The RSP seems to be showing signs of life, if this is the case and breadth starts to improve we could very well be at the start of the next leg higher. Next week is the key in my opinion.... If the RSP starts trending upward while the SPY makes a new high that will be the confirmation of the start of another trend. A breakdown of the SPY below the low of the week and it's game over. I'm taking a glass half-full approach going into next week

The throttle

This week's light: [ 🟡 YELLOW  ]

Big caps are still keeping this market alive, the rest of the army have not caught up yet, so we're keeping the light yellow. Seeing the RSP reclaim the 21EMA would turn it green and we will then see some serious moves in the market

Sentiment gauge

Reading: -0.15

The sentiment aka mood is reasonably good at the moment but price has not yet caught up and that is the reason for the slight divergence. VIX is at 15.3, below average, the fear and greed index has improved after being in the twenties early this week and the news tone has turned bullish. I am now looking for price to start edging out the sentiment and as soon as we start seeing a bullish divergence we know the market might be starting to move the other way.

The book

I made some errors this week that caused a couple of unnecessary losses, but overall my core positions are still holding and made some good gains this week. CRWD is up 7% from last week and ZETA 15%. This is evidence of the AI and Semiconductor as well as the Software these still acting strong. This week I added FOTO to my long term portfolio. FOTO is an ETF with a basket of stocks in the photonics industry. Photonic technology allows for better and faster data transmission compared to copper wiring and will be in huge demand as new data centres are being built. This week the structure changed on the price of that ETF and I took a position

[Note: A brief explanation on the 2 sections: I have 2 accounts that I trade in and a different strategy for each account. Velocity is a swing trading strategy which I trade in a margin account and Anchor is a position trading strategy that I trade in my registered retirement savings account.]

Last Monday's plan vs what happened

• Planned: My plan going in to the week was to focus on my current positions and add when the timing was right and conditions allowed
• Happened: Well..... that plan was poorly executed this week. I did not focus on these positions only and tried to trade too much again. My selection was poor, although the names I entered are setting up well, the timing was not ready yet. I also had a number of good names on my daily focus list at the start of the week..... i did not focus on them and they left the station leaving me behind
• The one I got wrong: IONQ, CRCL and RDW was on my list for the start of the week, I tried a position but got stopped on all 3 accounts. It's not quite ready and in hindsight should've not entered. But the ones bothering me the most this week is AXTI and VIAV

Mistake Audit

When reflecting on the month of September, I realized one of my big recurring mistakes is adding to my positions too fast. This could be a good tactic in a raging bull market, but in this environment it punished me.....This showed up in a big way on ARM this week.

I got a great entry on ARM mid September as it gapped out of that little consolidation and it ripped higher. It broke the base pivot and continued higher. I was looking for a place to add, I usually time my entries on the 5 minute timeframe and waited for the break of structure. I added when it ripped higher......... BUT here is where I made the mistake: in this environment buying breakouts gets punished (especially when price is a bit extended). Price started reversing soon after my add and ultimately came back down to the 21EMA right at the range pivot. This was the place where I should've added and not at the extension. I could've had a big position with very low risk.

There are 2 big lessons I take away from this trade.

1. In a yellow light environment like this DO NOT buy extended breakouts! Buying pullbacks get rewarded. The market will give me enough time to find the perfect entry, I just have to stay patient.
2. Never be in a rush to add to a position. Again, I should've considered the environment I'm in and waited for the pullback to add to the position.

Another mistake I keep on repeating is setting my stoploss too tight. AXTI is a prime example of this. I once again entered using the 5min time frame after a gap-up on the open and placed my stoploss just below the low of the day. The next day price reversed and stopped me out within an hour of the open and started ripping higher. The price went 20cents below my stoploss before turning around!!!!

The lesson I'm taking from this trade is once again related to the environment and the feedback from my own trades. The better play would've been to size smaller and take a wider stoploss. I would've still been in this trade with a good entry.

Cellys

Something worth celebrating this week is my patience with DELL. I know this is a market leader and I want to give it enough time to do it's thing. I know it's just a matter of time before it will start moving. It's been showing very good strength in this choppy market.

I was very tempted this week to tighten my stop loss to just below the 21EMA, but because my average price was a little on the high side as a result of the adds I decided to keep the stoploss just above the breakeven price. Risking an undercut of the 21EMA and immediate reverse in price was not worth the reward of a couple of points. My intuition proved right and that is indeed what happened. Price undercut the 21EMA on Thursday morning, reclaimed that level and continued higher on Friday breaking through the range. This is the biggest position in my portfolio and I want to give it as much room as possible to run because it will be a needle-mover forsure!

The week ahead

Weekly Focus list: Here is my extended focus list for next week - $VECO $COHR $AXTI $VIAV $SITM $TTMI $MCHP $GLW $SIMO $ANET $BB $CRWV $IONQ $ALAB

Daily Focus list: My shortlist to focus on at the start of the week - $SIMO $SPCX $AAOI $CIEN $VECO

Sector read: Semiconductors are dominating! The group finished the week strongest and my screeners are dominated by semi names

What would change my mind: Monitoring the leaders and their performance is key. The market is still extremely thin. If the RSP does not recover and the leaders start fading, it will be the sign that the ship is sinking and we need to start heading for a life raft

This is my own trading journal. It is not investment advice, it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not tailored to your circumstances, your objectives or your risk tolerance. I am not registered as an investment adviser, dealer or representative with any securities regulator. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and most active traders lose money. Do your own work and speak with a registered professional before acting on anything you read here. Full disclaimer.