Cold Water

The Saturday Review is my trading journal, published every Saturday morning. What I traded, what it cost me, and what I got wrong.

No. 5 · Week ending 16 October 2026

Before anything else

Saturday mornings allow me to spend quality time in the Word, so this is where the week's review begins, before a single chart is opened.

Living life is hard..... going through trials is hard.... we often feel it's unfair and question the reason for it. But then you open the Bible and God explains why: Trials produce step-by-step transformation that make us as believers more like Christ. Going through trials is painful, but the Bible calls us to rejoice in these trials. Why? Because the suffering produces endurance, it makes us tolerable to hard times, which in turn produces character and this produces hope.

Hope..... now that's a word that I took a moment to digest. When reading through this verse I understood the rejoicing in our sufferings part, I understood that we need to go through it because it produces good character, but how do we get to the hope part? How does character produce hope?

I looked up the word: HOPE

• As a Noun: A feeling that something desired can happen, a specific goal or wish, or a person or thing that brings a chance for success.
• As a Verb: To want something to happen and believe there is a reasonable possibility that it could occur.

This doesn't sound right. Why would God put me through trials to build character which in turns produces hope, but this hope is only a feeling that something desired "can" happen, there is a "chance" for success or a "reasonable possibility" that it can occur. That doesn't sound very promising..... how do I rejoice in that?

But when I look at the word Hope from a Biblical context it changes everything. The hope we often talk about is earthly hope, Biblical hope is completely different. Hope is a confident, joyful expectation of good based on the unchanging character of God. Biblical hope is absolute certainty, looking forward into the future. Hope is anchored in God's character and personified though Jesus Christ.

Hope is a joyful expectation. Hope is an absolute certainty. Hope is a PROMISE!!

So know this: When we go through hard times, it comes with a promise that it will get better. It's not wishful thinking, there isn't a chance it might get better, there is not reasonable possibility but only CERTAINTY. God promises us that whatever we go through will get better, just keep trusting in him and endure whatever trial you are going through.

The scorecard

Realized this week, and where that leaves the year.

This week's been the hardest week I've experienced in a long time. After the CPI results on Wednesday a number of my trades got stopped out and the losses of this week have been tough. It's one of those weeks where you start questioning everything again. I'm taking a good hard look at my strategy and process and trying to change and modify in order to better protect myself, from myself. Alot of the losses could've 100% been avoided. I've been saying this week in and week and out and never seem to believe myself..... I've been overtrading.... taking trades where I should not have and exposing myself too much. The one good thing is that I'm sticking to my risk management rules (for the most part except some trades in my position trading account) but the papercuts have added up and it's turned into a big drawdown over the last couple of months.

The only thing I can do now is to really focus, take a deep breath and do some introspection to see where I went wrong over the last couple of months.

One of the major things I realized this week was that I was trading and looking for stocks that were outside of the strategy I've been working on for the last 18 months. I've been influenced too much by outside sources and drifted from the style I'm trying to develop. My vision is to develop a playbook that will fit my lifestyle and achieve the goals I've set in place (Lord willing). I'm not going to do that by making 15-20 trades per week, executing on emotions with no sound plan in place. I really need to focus on slowing it down. I'm going to spend some time this weekend refreshing my watchlists, filling them with stocks based on the strategy I want to trade and try to hone in on these. Be more patient and see where this market is taking us.

My strategy is built around taking advantage of a stock's explosive move from stage 1 into stage 2. The trade is done in 3 moves:

First, identify the launchpad i.e a confirmed low with higher low within the base.

Second, wait for the price to break the 21EMA on high volume.

Third, add to it on a pullback.

This is the strategy I want to keep working on and I need to start focusing my attention to ensure my stock selection meets these criteria. I have to build my watchlists accordingly and stay laser focused on this.

My equity curve has really taken a nosedive this week. These last few months since the summer started has really hurt the work I did between March and May..... The only way to climb out of this hole is to stop, slow down, take a breath, re-asses, plan properly and prepare for the next attempt.

Note: the realized return above are closed trades. The equity curve includes open positions.

Where the market stands

Considering the events of the past week and looking at the indexes, it appears to me that this might be the start of a new rotation rather than a broad sell-off and bear market. The RSP has been in a steady decline since mid August and reclaimed key moving averages this week. It seems breadth might be returning as the bigger tech stocks start to unwind, specifically AI related ones and the money flows into more traditional sectors. Earnings season is upon us again as a number of big tech companies are reporting next week and this might certainly give some answers on the next steps. Reporting on Wedesday: META TSLA LRCX. SPCX also reporting on Tuesday which alot of people will be watching including me.

The key is going to be whether or not the RSP can stay above the 21EMA and eventually reclaim the 50SMA. If the RSP starts dropping next week while the SPY also falls below support this market will be entering bearish territory. For now, I'm going to keep focusing on strength and see if I can spot where the money is rotation to while keeping my eye on these two indexes.

The throttle

This week's light: [  🟠 AMBER  ]

RSP reclaimed the 21EMA but the SPY has fallen below. To me this is a sign of rotation and the light moves to Amber

Sentiment gauge

Reading: +0.22

Sentiment has really taken a nose-dive this week. The fear&greed index has jumped into extreme fear and the VIX jumped to 20. Price of the RSP and SPY has held up better than the sentiment and that is the reason for the divergence.

The book

It's not been a good week for me. I got stopped out of a number of trades. I added SPCX back on Friday after it held the low. NOW and SNAP have held up well through this week and are more inline with the strategy that I want to trade. We'll see how they hold up this week.

A brief explanation on the 2 section: I have 2 accounts that I trade in and a different strategy for each account. Velocity is a swing trading strategy which I trade in a margin account and Anchor is a position trading strategy that I trade in my registered retirement savings account.

Last Monday's plan vs what happened

The plan for last week was completely blown out of the water by the higher than expected CPI numbers and the unwinding of the AI-trade.

• Planned: I was hoping to add to CEG, AAOI and CRCL
• Happened: The release of the CPI numbers and reports on the sustainability of this AI-buildout caused serious doubts in the market and we saw a sell-off this week stopping me out of a number of trades.
• The one I got wrong: oh man..... there's a number of ones that I got wrong this week. I wrote about it here

Mistake Audit

Mistakes a plenty this week. I wrote about it here

Cellys

There isn't really anything to celebrate this week. It's been a brutal one

The week ahead

Since redefining my strategy and focus, my watchlist names look completely different. Don't expect these names to be high on the talking list on social media. The edge I'm trying to build here is to be early in names before they break out of their stage 1 bases.

Launchpad Watchlist:

Stocks on my extended list that are forming an actionable setup: $BABA $SE

These stocks are still completing the base, so I'm just keeping an eye

Ignition Alert:

Stocks that have formed the launchpad (base) and are actionable: $YETI $LYFT $ELF $EOG $CRCL $DXCM $PGY

Sector read: Market seems to be rotating out of AI stocks and into more traditional sectors.

What would change my mind: As long as the $RSP stays above the 21EMA, i consider the market to still be bullish

This is my own trading journal. It is not investment advice, it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not tailored to your circumstances, your objectives or your risk tolerance. I am not registered as an investment adviser, dealer or representative with any securities regulator. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and most active traders lose money. Do your own work and speak with a registered professional before acting on anything you read here. Full disclaimer.