Stress Test Passed

The Saturday Review is my trading journal, published every Saturday morning. What I traded, what it cost me, and what I got wrong.

No. 2 · Week ending 25 September 2026

Before anything else

Saturday mornings allow me to spend quality time in the Word, so this is where the week's review begins, before a single chart is opened.

Harsh words! Before continuing it is important to understand the context and not just dwell on the verse alone. Malachi lived in the 5th century B.C, approximately 100 years after the decree from Cyrus which ended their Babylonian captivity and allowed them to go back to their homeland of Judah to rebuild the temple. In Malachi's time the temple was already rebuilt and the Israelites are once again worshipping God in the temple. Malachi's audience were not blatant idolaters, they seemingly served the Lord, but their religion has become a dead religion. They made ethical compromises, diluted the demands of worship and were just going through the motions.

In this section God is condemning their begrudging offerings. Throughout scripture God calls us to "tithe" i.e give our first fruits to Him, which is at least 10% of our income. This is what God uses to fund his economy. The tithe was used to sustain the the priests, the operation of the temple and allowing His ministry to flourish. In that time there was a drought which led to crop failure and pestilence hence the reason for their begrudging tithes. But God says NO, bring the FULL tithe to his house, they can test him, he will open the heavens and send them rain so that they are blessed once again "until there is no more need". He was calling them to give the FULL tithe, even in a time of financial difficulty.

Tithing is very important to God, scripture repeatedly calls us to give back to him. Our tithes are used to fund his ministry, to support our churches and pastors, to have enough resources to take care of the poor and needy and without it God's word, his gospel, cannot be spread to all the people.

This is a word that needs to be taken seriously, because through it God also tests our hearts. Everything we have is given to us by God, but he calls us to give some of it back to allow his kingdom on earth to flourish. If we refuse to give our tithes or do it begrudgingly, it shows the greed in our hearts and our faithlessness in him. In this word, he is promising us that if we give the full tithe back to him, he will open the windows of heaven for us and pour down blessings on us "until there is no more need". He promises to bless us according to our NEED, but not necessarily according to our GREED.

My prayer today is to ask God to work in my heart and remind me to put him first in every aspect of my life, including my finances.

The scorecard

Realized this week, and where that leaves the year.

This week has been much slower. A couple of stops hit, some of them I re-entered. I'm seeing more and more stocks with good setups, regardless of the news it does look like something bigger is on the horizon. I have started positioning myself over the last couple of weeks hence the reason for the slowdown in my trading, now it's just a matter of sitting and waiting.

I am making some headway on the equity curve. It doesn't show the steady upward curve that I've experienced earlier this year, but i've stopped a large part of the bleeding that started during the summer. It's been a very difficult market for me to trade in over the last couple of months, I've made a ton of forced and unnecessary trades resulting in the bleeding, but this also gave me an opportunity to reflect on it and have made some good changes to my playbook. I'm learning everyday and continuing to work hard at controlling my risk the best I can, and lately focusing on overcoming fear and buying pullbacks.

Note: the realized return above are closed trades. The equity curve includes open positions.

Where the market stands

It's a very difficult market to interpret at the moment. Broadly speaking breadth is continuing to deteriorate as can be seen by looking at the RSP which is the equal weighted counterpart of the SPY. 54% of stocks are now in a Weinstein Stage4 and opportunities are few and far between. Yet, the SPY is holding up and showing strength. Thursday's oops reversal with a gap down on opening undercutting the 21EMA and a reversal to end the day above the 21EMA was a very positive move. Follow through on Friday closing the day near the highs was another good sign that this market is not ready to roll over. But this market is not driven by breadth, it's being driven by a handful of select big name stocks where big money is seemingly positioning for a big move.

The throttle

This week's light: [ 🟡 YELLOW  ]

SPY is above the 21EMA but RSP still dismal. It is evident that the Generals (mega caps) are leading the charge, if they decide to pullback, the market will fall fast. I'm still cautious, although exposed quite a bit I'm managing my risk very tight.

Sentiment gauge

Reading: +0.01

Price and sentiment are aligned. No divergence. It means the market i.e investors are aligned with the price and neutral. There is no clear indication of a market direction. I take this as a positive sign because going into this week we were staring at a bearish divergence.

The book

A brief explanation on the 2 sections: I have 2 accounts that I trade in and a different strategy for each account. Velocity is a swing trading strategy which I trade in a margin account and Anchor is a position trading strategy that I trade in my registered retirement savings account.

My concentration is focused around leading stocks showing relative strength. Over the last couple of weeks I've been building positions in these strong names and this week added to those I already had as well as adding some new ones. The crypto theme has lost steam (lol the riming was not intended) and i was stopped out of CRCL. SPCX was lackluster and stopped me out as well. These stocks are not being discarded, I'm moving them my watchlist to keep an eye on and wait for the right time to enter again. The timing is not right just yet.

Last Monday's plan vs what happened

• Planned: My plan going into the week was to focus on my current positions and adding to them when conditions allowed
• Happened: I'm happy that I followed this plan. I stayed disciplined (for the most part) and waited for the right time to add to my positions. Because I had been stopped out of SPCX and CRCL, it allowed me to look for some other opportunities and I added HNGE to my portfolio. I've been in that one earlier in the month and got stopped out, it continued coiling and gave me an opportunity to enter with a tight stop.
• The one I got wrong: NOW is my only regret for the week. After getting stopped out of CRCL on Friday I was looking for another opportunity and considered NOW too hastily. After my entry price got rejected soon after and stopped me out toward the end of the day.

Mistake Audit

As mentioned above, NOW was the regrettable trade for the week. I'm showing 2 charts on it below. Firstly the daily chart: Price has formed a cup and now building the handle out on the right side, price is tightening and volume drying up. All signs of a big move pending. However, i did not get the timing right and paid the price. It is still basing and not ready for that move yet. Waiting for volatility contraction and RMV crosses to show up is a key entry tactic for me and I ignored that on Friday. It was also on its way down and not yet reached the 21EMA which it retested late on Friday. More patience was required before entering this one.

I only trade on 2 timeframes. The daily and the 5min which I use to time my entries. This chart is busy and a lot going on so I'll briefly explain it. Apart from the obvious white dashed trend lines there are also the 50SMA (blue line) 200SMA (red line) 21EMA (yellow line) 10EMA (purple line) and the AVWAP (white line). The yellow and purple dashed lines as the 21EMA and 10EMA on the daily timeframe. Price gapped down and shot up straight away froming the oops reversal, made a higher low a few minutes later and i entered as it was reaching the AVWAP anchored to the weekly open. This was my mistake.... Instead of waiting for the price to reclaim the AVWAPs and moving averages I entered pre-maturely and got punished for my impatience. This was my lesson on this trade. I have clearly defined entry tactics and I disregarded them on this trade.

Cellys

I didn't have any realized gains to celebrate this week because I am building positions and waiting for the next big move in the market to come. This week I'm looking back at ANET and want to celebrate how far I've come in my mental resolve to stick to my thesis and make the right decisions based on price action which I'm getting better at reading.

ANET broke through its base pivot after an earnings catalyst early August and has been consolidating above this pivot on declining volume since. Last week I entered the trade just before it broke through the range pivot and added as it made another high. Price got rejected and hit a partial stop i placed just below the 10EMA on opening and immediately went up forming the oops reversal. Instead of fearing this I immediately entered again. An oops reversal is probably one of the most reliable entry triggers out there because it shows that sellers are being overcome by buyers and a positive signal for more upside to come. I decided to act on that and add more to my position.

Whether the move continues or reverses i don't know, it's out of my control. I just try to make the best decision with the information infront of me and manage me risk tightly. On this trade I'm celebrating the process and hope to celebrate the result in the weeks to come

The week ahead

Weekly Focus list: I'm seeing alot of Semiconductor and memory names pop-up on the scans today. Semis have been the strongest group last week and seem to be building momentum. I'm not discounting Software yet but think it needs a little more time.

My broader focus list for the week: $BE $VIAV $AXTI $SITM $TER $MPWR $FLEX $COHR $TTMI $IONQ $MRVL $SPCX $AAOI $CBRS $RDW $APPF $SOFI $NOW $CLS $IREN $NTSK $BTDR $PGY $FSLY $ZS

Daily Focus list: Names that I will be focused on for entries early next week: $IONQ $CRCL $NOW $AXTI $STX $VIAV $RDW

Sector read: From what I can see semis are clearly setting up for a big move next week in addition to memory and the general AI build out as a whole. Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping and the agreement of a $30 billion reciprocal tariff reduction and AI dialogue might just be the catalyst for the next move higher

What would change my mind: If there is no deal with Iran to start winding down the middle eastern conflict and bond yields continue to rise it can put a serious stumbling block ahead of any market advances. I'm continuing to monitor this.....

Have a good week all!!

This is my own trading journal. It is not investment advice, it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and it is not tailored to your circumstances, your objectives or your risk tolerance. I am not registered as an investment adviser, dealer or representative with any securities regulator. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and most active traders lose money. Do your own work and speak with a registered professional before acting on anything you read here. Full disclaimer.